Saturday, January 26, 2008

Irrational exuberance about Obama's win

The margin is stunning, -- but let's put this sort of stuff in perspective: African-Americans made up more than 50 percent of the voters in today's primary. But the African-American voting age population is only about 27 percent of the total South Carolina voting age population.

This in part makes this somewhat silly. Obama won a historic victory, but he also had fewer serious competitors, more time to campaign, and a base of voters clearly united behind him. McCain and Huckabee had fewer days to campaign, an additional serious competitor and a base clearly uncertain about where to go.

It's a long time until November.

UPDATE: In 1988, Jesse Jackson won more than half the Democratic vote in caucus.



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